Daily brief

Daily brief · 2026-11-12

What prediction markets moved on

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Biggest moves, 24h

  1. Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B — MOUZ — Polymarket 78¢ → 0¢ (-77¢)
  2. Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B — G2 — Polymarket 23¢ → 100¢ (+77¢)
  3. Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B — G2 — Kalshi 23¢ → 100¢ (+77¢)
  4. Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B — MOUZ — Kalshi 78¢ → 1¢ (-77¢)
  5. M15 Antalya: Evgenii Tiurnev vs Alessandro Bellifemine — Evgenii Tiurnev — Kalshi 25¢ → 99¢ (+74¢)
  6. M15 Antalya: Evgenii Tiurnev vs Alessandro Bellifemine — Alessandro Bellifemine — Kalshi 75¢ → 2¢ (-73¢)

Where the exchanges disagree

  1. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Benjamin Netanyahu: Kalshi 9¢ vs Polymarket 22¢ (+13¢)
  2. Next CEO of NVIDIA? — Ian Buck: Kalshi 32¢ vs Polymarket 25¢ (-7¢)
  3. Big Bash League, Women: Melbourne Stars vs Brisbane Heat — Melbourne Stars: Kalshi 52¢ vs Polymarket 46¢ (-6¢)

Most traded on both

  1. Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A — FURIA 100¢ Kalshi / 100¢ Polymarket
  2. Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Jon Ossoff 26¢ Kalshi / 27¢ Polymarket
  3. Fed Decision in December? — 25 bps increase 86¢ Kalshi / 87¢ Polymarket
  4. Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — J.D. Vance 36¢ Kalshi / 31¢ Polymarket
  5. Next French Presidential Election — Marine Le Pen 50¢ Kalshi / 46¢ Polymarket

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