Daily brief

Daily brief · 2026-11-08

What prediction markets moved on

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Biggest moves, 24h

  1. Louisiana-Monroe vs. Arkansas State — Louisiana-Monroe — Polymarket 11¢ → 95¢ (+85¢)
  2. Louisiana-Monroe vs. Arkansas State — Louisiana-Monroe — Kalshi 11¢ → 95¢ (+84¢)
  3. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia — CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza — Kalshi 79¢ → 1¢ (-78¢)
  4. UCF vs. Kansas — UCF — Polymarket 93¢ → 16¢ (-77¢)
  5. UCF vs. Kansas — Kansas — Polymarket 7¢ → 85¢ (+77¢)
  6. UCF vs. Kansas — Kansas — Kalshi 8¢ → 85¢ (+77¢)

Where the exchanges disagree

  1. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Benjamin Netanyahu: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 19¢ (+13¢)
  2. Next James Bond actor? — Robert Pattinson: Kalshi 29¢ vs Polymarket 16¢ (-13¢)
  3. Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? — Marco Rubio: Kalshi 17¢ vs Polymarket 12¢ (-5¢)

Most traded on both

  1. NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion — Georgia Bulldogs 28¢ Kalshi / 29¢ Polymarket
  2. Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Jon Ossoff 25¢ Kalshi / 26¢ Polymarket
  3. Next Press Secretary? — Anna Kelly 17¢ Kalshi / 13¢ Polymarket
  4. Mississippi Senate Election Winner — Scott Colom (D) 98¢ Kalshi / 99¢ Polymarket
  5. Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — J.D. Vance 34¢ Kalshi / 34¢ Polymarket

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