Daily brief

Daily brief · 2026-11-03

What prediction markets moved on

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Biggest moves, 24h

  1. Bratislava 2: Luka Pavlovic vs Alexander Shevchenko — Luka Pavlovic — Polymarket 45¢ → 100¢ (+55¢)
  2. Bears vs. Seahawks — Bears — Polymarket 38¢ → 91¢ (+53¢)
  3. Bears vs. Seahawks — Seahawks — Polymarket 63¢ → 10¢ (-53¢)
  4. Bears vs. Seahawks — Bears — Kalshi 39¢ → 91¢ (+52¢)
  5. Bears vs. Seahawks — Seahawks — Kalshi 62¢ → 10¢ (-52¢)
  6. Kings vs. Mavericks — Mavericks — Kalshi 76¢ → 26¢ (-50¢)

Where the exchanges disagree

  1. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Benjamin Netanyahu: Kalshi 17¢ vs Polymarket 35¢ (+18¢)
  2. Next James Bond actor? — Jack Barton: Kalshi 11¢ vs Polymarket 2¢ (-9¢)
  3. Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — Marco Rubio: Kalshi 24¢ vs Polymarket 19¢ (-5¢)

Most traded on both

  1. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms — Democrats Sweep 75¢ Kalshi / 77¢ Polymarket
  2. Which party will win the House in 2026? — Democratic Party 93¢ Kalshi / 95¢ Polymarket
  3. Texas Senate Election Winner — James Talarico (D) 74¢ Kalshi / 75¢ Polymarket
  4. Which party will win the Senate in 2026? — Democratic Party 76¢ Kalshi / 78¢ Polymarket
  5. Michigan Senate Election Winner — Abdul El-Sayed (D) 81¢ Kalshi / 81¢ Polymarket

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