Daily brief

Daily brief · 2026-11-05

What prediction markets moved on

Published here every morning. Email edition launching soon: join the list to get it first.

Biggest moves, 24h

  1. FC Pohang Steelers vs. Gamba Osaka — Gamba Osaka — Polymarket 82¢ → 0¢ (-81¢)
  2. FC Pohang Steelers vs. Gamba Osaka — Gamba Osaka — Kalshi 82¢ → 1¢ (-81¢)
  3. PSV vs. Club Brugge KV — Club Brugge KV — Polymarket 28¢ → 100¢ (+72¢)
  4. PSV vs. Club Brugge KV — Club Brugge KV — Kalshi 29¢ → 100¢ (+71¢)
  5. Rolex Paris Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Alex de Minaur — Alex de Minaur — Kalshi 80¢ → 12¢ (-68¢)
  6. Rolex Paris Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Alex de Minaur — Tomas Etcheverry — Polymarket 16¢ → 84¢ (+68¢)

Where the exchanges disagree

  1. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Benjamin Netanyahu: Kalshi 10¢ vs Polymarket 28¢ (+18¢)
  2. Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Xinyu Wang vs Antonia Ruzic — Antonia Ruzic: Kalshi 50¢ vs Polymarket 68¢ (+18¢)
  3. Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz — Carlos Alcaraz: Kalshi 85¢ vs Polymarket 80¢ (-5¢)

Most traded on both

  1. Mississippi Senate Election Winner — Scott Colom (D) 96¢ Kalshi / 96¢ Polymarket
  2. Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Jon Ossoff 27¢ Kalshi / 26¢ Polymarket
  3. Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — J.D. Vance 32¢ Kalshi / 34¢ Polymarket
  4. NC-03 House Election Winner — Raymond Smith Jr. (D) 80¢ Kalshi / 80¢ Polymarket
  5. UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion — Barcelona 21¢ Kalshi / 23¢ Polymarket

Archive