# Zlotex

> Zlotex (zlotex.com) is an independent price-comparison and research site for US prediction markets. It matches identical events listed on Kalshi and Polymarket, shows live prices side by side, tracks state-by-state legal availability, and publishes fact-checked guides and original price-gap data. It does not hold funds or sell picks.

## Live data
- [Compare Kalshi vs Polymarket prices](https://zlotex.com/compare): every event listed on both exchanges, refreshed every 10 minutes
- [Price-gap statistics](https://zlotex.com/data/price-gaps): average gap 1.94 cents across 12923 hourly observations; 65% within 1 cent (CSV, CC BY 4.0)
- [Prediction markets today](https://zlotex.com/today): biggest 24h moves
- [Where prediction markets are legal](https://zlotex.com/where): availability of Kalshi, Polymarket US, Robinhood, DraftKings and others by US state

## Free tools
- [Fee and break-even calculator](https://zlotex.com/tools/fee-calculator): exact Kalshi / Polymarket fees, payout, break-even probability, odds
- [Cross-exchange gap calculator](https://zlotex.com/tools/gap-calculator): does a price gap survive fees

## Guides
- [Kalshi vs Polymarket (2026): fees, availability, which is cheaper](https://zlotex.com/guides/kalshi-vs-polymarket): Kalshi vs Polymarket US in 2026: 0.07 vs 0.0695 taker fees side by side, combo and series exceptions, funding, age rules and state availability.
- [Kalshi fees explained: formula, fee table and worked examples](https://zlotex.com/guides/kalshi-fees): Kalshi's fee formula (0.07 taker, 0.0175 maker), series multipliers including combos, rounding, and deposit fees, with worked examples at common prices.
- [Polymarket fees explained (Polymarket US and international)](https://zlotex.com/guides/polymarket-fees): Polymarket US vs Polymarket.com fees: taker formula, category rates, maker and taker rebates, combos, and funding costs, with worked examples.
- [How prediction markets work: prices, contracts, and settlement](https://zlotex.com/guides/how-prediction-markets-work): Beginner's guide to prediction markets: what a $1 event contract is, how prices map to probability, and how fees and settlement work, with an example.
- [Is Kalshi legal? State-by-state status and the court fight](https://zlotex.com/guides/is-kalshi-legal): Is Kalshi legal in your state? Kalshi's federal status, the circuit split over sports contracts, CFTC suits against states and the Supreme Court petition.
- [How to read prediction market prices as probabilities](https://zlotex.com/guides/implied-probability): A 63¢ Yes price implies about a 63% chance. Learn bid vs ask vs midpoint, why Yes+No tops $1, odds conversion, and fee-adjusted break-even math.
- [Prediction markets vs sportsbooks: key differences](https://zlotex.com/guides/prediction-markets-vs-sportsbooks): Sportsbooks set odds and take your bet; Kalshi and Polymarket US match traders for a fee. Compare vig vs fees, limits, CFTC vs state rules, taxes.
- [Are prediction markets accurate? What the research says](https://zlotex.com/guides/are-prediction-markets-accurate): Iowa markets beat polls 74% of the time, but Kalshi long shots under 10¢ lost buyers 60%+. Studies on calibration, bias, manipulation and 2024.
- [Prediction market glossary: 56 terms defined](https://zlotex.com/guides/prediction-market-glossary): Plain definitions of 56 prediction market terms, from DCM, Rule 40.11 and self-certification to maker/taker, midpoint, UMA, USDC and slippage.
- [Polymarket US vs Polymarket.com: who can use which (2026)](https://zlotex.com/guides/polymarket-us-vs-international): Polymarket US (QCX LLC, CFTC-regulated) vs international Polymarket.com: who can sign up, KYC, USD vs USDC funding, fee formulas and markets.
- [Robinhood prediction markets: fees, rules and Kalshi compared](https://zlotex.com/guides/robinhood-prediction-markets): How Robinhood event contracts work: the exchanges behind them, fees per contract, account rules, state limits, and what the same trade costs on Kalshi.
- [Sportsbook prediction markets: DraftKings, FanDuel, Underdog](https://zlotex.com/guides/sportsbook-prediction-markets): DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, Underdog and more: who runs each exchange, fees per trade, where sports contracts are offered.
- [Prediction market platforms compared: US apps side by side](https://zlotex.com/guides/prediction-market-platforms-compared): Kalshi, Polymarket US, Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, Webull, Crypto.com, Coinbase, DraftKings, FanDuel and Novig: regulator, fees, age, funding, limits.
- [Can you arbitrage Kalshi and Polymarket? The math and the risks](https://zlotex.com/guides/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage): Kalshi vs Polymarket arbitrage with both fee formulas: when a price gap covers fees, and why split resolutions and locked capital make it risky.
- [How prediction markets resolve: Kalshi vs Polymarket settlement](https://zlotex.com/guides/how-markets-resolve): How Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.com decide outcomes: rulebooks, source agencies, UMA disputes, and real resolutions that went wrong.
- [Prediction market taxes: what the IRS has and hasn't said](https://zlotex.com/guides/prediction-market-taxes): How Kalshi and Polymarket gains may be taxed: no IRS guidance yet, gambling vs capital vs Section 1256 views, and the forms Kalshi says it issues.
- [Liquidity and spreads: why the price you see isn't your fill](https://zlotex.com/guides/liquidity-and-spreads): Why a prediction market's displayed price isn't what you pay: spreads, order book depth, slippage, a worked fill example, and how limit orders help.
- [How to start trading prediction markets: step by step](https://zlotex.com/guides/how-to-start-trading-prediction-markets): Step by step for US beginners: check your state, pick a platform, verify ID, fund the account, read the rules and place a small limit order.

## About
- [Methodology and editorial policy](https://zlotex.com/methodology)
- [Affiliate disclosure](https://zlotex.com/disclosure)