Daily brief

Daily brief · 2026-11-04

What prediction markets moved on

Published here every morning. Email edition launching soon: join the list to get it first.

Biggest moves, 24h

  1. Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Jiri Lehecka — Alex Michelsen — Polymarket 18¢ → 89¢ (+71¢)
  2. Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Jiri Lehecka — Jiri Lehecka — Polymarket 83¢ → 12¢ (-71¢)
  3. Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Jiri Lehecka — Jiri Lehecka — Kalshi 82¢ → 12¢ (-70¢)
  4. Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Jiri Lehecka — Alex Michelsen — Kalshi 19¢ → 89¢ (+70¢)
  5. South Carolina Senate Election Winner — Darline Graham Nordone (R) — Polymarket 70¢ → 1¢ (-68¢)
  6. South Carolina Senate Election Winner — Darline Graham Nordone (R) — Kalshi 68¢ → 0¢ (-67¢)

Where the exchanges disagree

  1. Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club — Abha Saudi Club: Kalshi 18¢ vs Polymarket 0¢ (-18¢)
  2. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Benjamin Netanyahu: Kalshi 14¢ vs Polymarket 28¢ (+14¢)
  3. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club — Al Fayha Saudi Club: Kalshi 8¢ vs Polymarket 2¢ (-6¢)

Most traded on both

  1. Michigan Senate Election Winner — Abdul El-Sayed (D) 100¢ Kalshi / 100¢ Polymarket
  2. Mississippi Senate Election Winner — Scott Colom (D) 78¢ Kalshi / 77¢ Polymarket
  3. Nebraska Senate Election Winner — Pete Ricketts (R) 99¢ Kalshi / 100¢ Polymarket
  4. Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Jon Ossoff 21¢ Kalshi / 26¢ Polymarket
  5. Blue wave in 2026? — Blue wave in 2026? 99¢ Kalshi / 100¢ Polymarket

Archive