Fed Decision in December?: Kalshi vs Polymarket odds
25 bps increase: 70¢ on Kalshi, 71¢ on Polymarket. Kalshi is 1¢ cheaper for "Yes".
Fed Decision in December?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 70¢ | 71¢ | +1¢ |
| 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 2¢ | 0¢ |
| 25 bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | -1¢ |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 0¢ | -1¢ |
Why the same contract has two prices
Kalshi and Polymarket run separate order books with different traders, so prices drift apart. Fees differ, and liquidity differs by market. Check each exchange's resolution rules before treating a gap as free money: small wording differences can mean the contracts are not identical.
Where can you trade it?
Kalshi and Polymarket US availability depends on your state, and sports contracts are blocked in some states. Check your state.