Who will be arrested before 2027?: Kalshi vs Polymarket odds
Live · prices refresh every 10 minutes
John Brennan: 7¢ on Kalshi, 12¢ on Polymarket. Kalshi is 5¢ cheaper for "Yes".
Who will be arrested before 2027?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Brennan | 7¢ | 12¢ | +5¢ |
| James Clapper | 5¢ | 7¢ | +2¢ |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 6¢ | 7¢ | +1¢ |
| Lee Jun-seok | 4¢ | 6¢ | +2¢ |
| Susan Rice | 3¢ | 5¢ | +2¢ |
| Candace Owens | 3¢ | 4¢ | +1¢ |
| Anthony Fauci | 2¢ | 4¢ | +2¢ |
| Tom Homan | 2¢ | 4¢ | +2¢ |
Price history
Why the same contract has two prices
Kalshi and Polymarket run separate order books with different traders, so prices drift apart. Fees differ, and liquidity differs by market. Check each exchange's resolution rules before treating a gap as free money: small wording differences can mean the contracts are not identical.
Before you trade
Use the fee and break-even calculator to see your all-in cost, or the gap calculator to check whether this price difference survives fees. Related reading: why the price you see isn't your fill, how markets resolve, and how often the two exchanges disagree.
Where can you trade it?
Kalshi and Polymarket US availability depends on your state, and sports contracts are blocked in some states. Check your state.