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BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Ugo Humbert: Kalshi vs Polymarket odds

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Lorenzo Musetti: 65¢ on Kalshi, 65¢ on Polymarket. Both exchanges price it the same.

BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Ugo Humbert

Kalshi 24h $7KPolymarket 24h $22K2 outcomes
OutcomeKalshiPolymarketGap
Lorenzo Musetti65¢65¢0¢
Ugo Humbert36¢36¢0¢

Why the same contract has two prices

Kalshi and Polymarket run separate order books with different traders, so prices drift apart. Fees differ, and liquidity differs by market. Check each exchange's resolution rules before treating a gap as free money: small wording differences can mean the contracts are not identical.

Before you trade

Use the fee and break-even calculator to see your all-in cost, or the gap calculator to check whether this price difference survives fees. Related reading: why the price you see isn't your fill, how markets resolve, and how often the two exchanges disagree.

Where can you trade it?

Kalshi and Polymarket US availability depends on your state, and sports contracts are blocked in some states. Check your state.

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