Daily brief

Tools

Fee and break-even calculator

Enter a price and size to see what a trade really costs, what it pays, and how likely the event has to be for it to make sense after fees.

—Fee
—Total cost
—Profit if it settles Yes
—Break-even probability
—American odds
—Decimal odds (after fees)

Fee formulas: Kalshi round-up(0.07 × C × P × (1−P)) to the cent; Polymarket US 0.0695 × C × P × (1−P); Polymarket.com category rates, rounded to 5 decimals. Rates as of November 2026 — see Kalshi fees and Polymarket fees. Estimates only; the exchange's own confirmation is final.

How the break-even number works

A contract pays $1 if the event happens. If your all-in cost per contract (price plus fee) is 41.7¢, the event needs to happen more than 41.7% of the time for the trade to pay off on average. Compare that number with your own estimate, not with the market price.