Matsuyama: Yosuke Watanuki vs Taro Daniel: Kalshi vs Polymarket odds
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Yosuke Watanuki: 57¢ on Kalshi, 51¢ on Polymarket. Polymarket is 7¢ cheaper for "Yes".
Matsuyama: Yosuke Watanuki vs Taro Daniel
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yosuke Watanuki | 57¢ | 51¢ | -6¢ |
| Taro Daniel | 43¢ | 50¢ | +7¢ |
Why the same contract has two prices
Kalshi and Polymarket run separate order books with different traders, so prices drift apart. Fees differ, and liquidity differs by market. Check each exchange's resolution rules before treating a gap as free money: small wording differences can mean the contracts are not identical.
Before you trade
Use the fee and break-even calculator to see your all-in cost, or the gap calculator to check whether this price difference survives fees. Related reading: why the price you see isn't your fill, how markets resolve, and how often the two exchanges disagree.
Where can you trade it?
Kalshi and Polymarket US availability depends on your state, and sports contracts are blocked in some states. Check your state.