Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Kalshi vs Polymarket odds
Pete Hegseth: 51¢ on Kalshi, 31¢ on Polymarket. Polymarket is 19¢ cheaper for "Yes".
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 51¢ | 31¢ | -20¢ |
| Susie Wiles | 19¢ | 24¢ | +5¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 21¢ | 8¢ | -13¢ |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 3¢ | 5¢ | +2¢ |
| Doug Burgum | 1¢ | 3¢ | +2¢ |
| Howard Lutnick | 3¢ | 3¢ | 0¢ |
| Scott Bessent | 1¢ | 2¢ | +1¢ |
| Mike Waltz | 1¢ | 2¢ | +1¢ |
Why the same contract has two prices
Kalshi and Polymarket run separate order books with different traders, so prices drift apart. Fees differ, and liquidity differs by market. Check each exchange's resolution rules before treating a gap as free money: small wording differences can mean the contracts are not identical.
Where can you trade it?
Kalshi and Polymarket US availability depends on your state, and sports contracts are blocked in some states. Check your state.